How an ideological split looms over Democratic momentum toward the midterms

The backlash to Donald Trump’s second presidency has been evident in state and local elections over the past year. Democratic candidates have increased their vote share by over 10% on average, winning back important segments of the electorate, from Hispanics to youth voters, to independents and suburban women. The stage seems set for a “blue wave” in the November mid-terms, which despite Republican success in gerrymandering congressional districts, should lead to a change in control of the House of Representatives, and a close race for the majority in the Senate.

Democratic success, however, comes with a significant asterisk. As the electorate has moved away from the Republicans due to aversion to Donald Trump (confirmed by virtually all major opinion polls), the benefits have flowed primarily to the most progressive wing of the opposition party, the “Democratic Socialists”, who have reaped numerous victories since November of 2025. It started with Zohran Mamdani being elected mayor of New York City, followed by victories in other mayoral races, from Seattle in January to Washington, D.C. in June. Recently, several Democratic Socialists also won congressional primaries, from Colorado and Minnesota to Pennsylvania and New York. Young candidates with the support of Mamdani, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders have succeeded in ousting long-term incumbents, demanding a harder line against Donald Trump and promoting the type of progressive policies that the party establishment has eschewed for fear of seeming too radical.

Read also: Non solo Mamdani: come cambia il Partito Democratico e la scena politica USA

This is certainly not the first time voters have asked for a change. Recent political history has been dominated by the demand for someone who will shake up the establishment: that’s why around 9 million people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 later voted for someone who appeared to be his ideological opposite, Donald Trump. Despite being a dwindling slice of the electorate, there remains a crucial segment of swing voters who are able to drive a shift in the political climate, often toward those who promise to shake up the status quo, and promote policies that will help Americans struggling with the decades-long crisis of the cost of living.

The political parties are adept at merging this anti-system discontent with cultural themes, as seen by the dominant role of immigration politics and culture wars around issues such as transgender rights. The conservatives have painted the movement for DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) as a mortal threat to the nation and Christian values, while progressives see it as an indispensable blueprint for dismantling systemic inequality. This contrast is the source of a major dilemma for the Democratic Party, as the reaction against “woke” policies was widely recognized as a significant factor in Kamala Harris’s loss in the 2024 presidential election.

There is undeniably great energy on the left of the Democratic Party, contributing to the hope for a decisive victory in the mid-terms. Yet the fear is also growing that the “socialist” label will provide political ammunition for the Republicans in the next few months. The White House seems to have already settled on its message: the “communists” represent “the biggest threat to our nation”, as President Trump put it in a June 29 press conference. The clear hope is to fall back on past success in culture wars to weather the coming storm.

In the aftermath of the November 2025 state and local elections, in which Democrats across the spectrum won, from Mamdani to the centrists Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherril in New Jersey, it seemed that the party had found a unifying message: opposition to “King” Trump and a heavy focus on the question of affordability. Those issues should be even more potent today, after the fiasco of the Iran war and the related rise in inflation. The fissures, though, have been present for some time: after her victory, the “National Security Mom” Spanberger immediately told Democrats that they should “not ever use the words socialist or socialism again”. Following the June primaries a number of moderate House members declared themselves “capitalist, not socialist”, asking others in the party to sign a pledge in favor of goals such as fiscal discipline, safety and secure borders. The fear of being identified as far left is palpable.

There is good reason to believe that the Republican strategy will have a limited effect – if the progressive candidates are able to maintain message discipline. The issues the left focuses on are closer to the national mood than in the past. Twenty-nine-year old Melat Kiros, who defeated a 15-term Democratic incumbent in a deep-blue Colorado district, said that she and her fellow challengers support policies aligned with most voters today: universal health care, abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and halting US funding for Israel.

That overstates the case: most Americans are wary of a fully public health care system, and have already shown that they will reject proposals to defund law enforcement agencies. Yet on these issues, there is plenty of substance the Democrats can work with: health care affordability is paramount among voters’ worries, and Trump’s aggressive approach to immigration cost him a significant amount of public support in the wake of the killing of two protesters in Minnesota at the beginning of the year. As for Israel, the vast majority of Democratic voters are critical of support for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, and even in the US population as a whole a majority now has an unfavorable view of Israel.

Read also: The Trump-Netanyahu line

Looking towards the November 3 elections for Congress, the question is whether the Democrats can thread the needle. There is an ideological split among the parties’ centrist and progressive wings, which the Republicans will seek to exploit to paint the whole party as dangerous proponents of a radical left ideology. But the Democrats have learned something from recent elections, and seem ready to prioritize the key issues that are provoking the strong anti-Trump reaction among voters: the president’s failure on the economy – from illegal tariffs to higher prices – and his abuse of power across the spectrum, on questions that range from free speech and conflicts of interest, to immigration and foreign policy.

If the different generations and factions of the party can agree to focus on these two main points – while tailoring that message to different parts of the country – that may succeed in making the Republicans’ accusations of communism seem like a worn-out line from a party unable to defend a failing president.