As the race for the White House and control over Congress is tightening up week after week, what is already clear is that Americans are voting in an era of very low trust in institutions and in political figures. 63% of adult citizens believe that the direction of the country is wrong (RCP average), President Joe Biden has a job approval of 42% (NYTimes/Siena), Congress is highly unpopular (in July, Gallup measured a disapproval rate above 80%) and general skepticism also affects science, medicine and big business. It is nothing new, as we are writing about a downward trend that has existed for decades. According to the Pew Research Centre, 22% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (21%). When the National Election Study began asking about trust in government in 1958, 70% of Americans trusted the federal government to do the right thing almost always or most of the time.
Faith in government began eroding during the 1960s, during the escalation of the Vietnam War, and the decline continued in the 1970s with the Watergate scandal and worsening economic struggles. Then there were peaks and decreases but the downward trend continued. As of today, 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they trust the federal government just about always or most of the time, compared with 11% of Republicans and Republican leaners. Again, that is highly predictable as trust in government has been consistently higher among members of the party that controls the White House than among the opposition party: When Trump was President, Republicans were more confident in the presidency than they are now, and the same exact trend applies to Democrats after the start of the Biden administration in January 2021.
What has certainly changed in the last few years has been the public attitude towards the Supreme Court: Once perceived as the most trusted US institution, since 2021 a negative trend appears here as well. According to the Gallup Historical Series, only 42% of Americans “approve the way the Supreme Court is handling its job.” Except for a brief period in the summer of 2016, in the four decades between 1980 and 2021, the Supreme Court approval rating never went below 50%.
Here the politicization of the Court certainly matters, with three Trump nominees who tilted the ideological balance of the institution towards conservatives. The overruling of Roe vs. Wade (the most consequential decision on abortion) in June 2022 was the major issue that alienated consensus and the current public opinion’s perception reflects the record-high political polarization with a majority of Republicans appreciating the Court and a very large majority of Democrats discontented.
Read also: Interregnum, the midterm and the curious timing of Roe vs. Wade
While this picture is known, the real question is why. On the answers, experts are divided, especially because it concerns not only political institutions but media, corporations and cultural organizations. Thus, a combination of political, social and economic factors may contribute to their unpopularity: The first one is political polarization. Political divisions have intensified, leading to a breakdown of trust in institutions perceived to favor one side over the other.
Many Americans feel institutions are no longer neutral or representative of the broader population. Congress, the executive branch, and even the judiciary are often seen as highly partisan, with gridlock preventing effective governance. This dysfunction frustrates the public and undermines confidence. Furthermore, various government agencies, from local police departments to federal institutions, have been embroiled in scandals involving corruption, abuse of power or incompetence. These high-profile cases erode public trust.
Economic inequality also plays a role: The growing gap between the rich and the poor, especially in some areas of the country, has contributed to the perception that American institutions primarily serve the wealthy and corporate interests, leaving the working class and middle class behind. Plus, there is widespread belief that corporations have outsized influence on politics, policymaking, and even the justice system. The public role of Elon Musk exemplifies this: a multi-billionaire with multiple conflicts of interests who constantly messes with the public debate and the election campaigns.
The great American malaise
Above all, and related to the previous point, there is the ongoing transformation of the media environment: The rise of social media has contributed to the spread of misinformation and has intensified political tribalism. It also exposes institutional failings at a faster rate, while fostering cynicism. Media outlets, especially in the digital age, are often seen as biased, sensationalist, or driven by clickbait rather than responsible journalism. Misinformation and fake news narratives further amplify this distrust. With access to vast amounts of (sometimes false) information online, the authority of traditional experts and institutions – whether in science, medicine or policy – has been undermined. This fuels a broader skepticism of expertise in general.
These factors, when woven together, have led to a sharp decline in confidence and trust in American institutions, particularly as they are perceived to serve only certain segments of society while being ineffective or biased toward others. This record-high polarization, that – in a certain way – is also behind the 2 assassination attempts against Trump, poses obstacles towards both candidates.
Trump, despite being a former President and on his third campaign as a Republican nominee, keeps running as an “anti-establishment” outsider. In employing the usual populist rhetoric (“us versus them”, “all elites are evil and Democrats” immigrants are enemies), he is able to galvanise his hardcore electoral base but find difficulties in expanding his consensus towards undecided voters. Kamala Harris, who is naturally perceived as much more “institutional”, is having the twofold task to not distance herself too much from some of the good legacies of the Biden administration while also working to portray herself as new.
Taken altogether, these context features are probably favoring Trump. However, when skepticism is so generalized, all policymakers (Trump included) face the crucial task of mobilizing voters and not letting them abstain because they are driven away by discontent.