The new Congressional landscape: a genuine GOP sweep
Trump’s sweeping presidential victory was also followed by significant wins at the Congressional level. Republicans took control of the Senate, ending four years of Democratic leadership, and confirmed their (tiny) majority in the House of Representatives.
This new majority positions the GOP to significantly influence legislative priorities and the confirmation of presidential nominees. This is the first time since 1980 that Republicans have flipped control of the Senate, or any chamber of Congress, in a presidential year. They flipped seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, while all Republican incumbents won re-election. The GOP also successfully defended all of their own seats for the first time since 2014.
Before the elections, the Democratic Party held a majority of 51 seats (47+4 independents). There were 35 Senate seats up for election, with 33 regular elections and two special elections – one in California, to fill the final two months of Democrat Dianne Feinstein’s term following her death in September 2023; and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Republican Ben Sasse’s term following his resignation in January 2023. Twenty-six senators (15 Democrats, nine Republicans, and two independents who caucused with Democrats) were seeking re-election, while three Democrats (Tom Carper of Delaware, Ben Cardin of Maryland, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan), two Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah) and two independents (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) not seeking re-election.
Democrats knew that it would have been hard to keep control of the upper chamber: Senator Manchin from West Virginia has long been considered the most moderate member of the party and with his retirement it appeared almost impossible to elect a new Democratic Senator in a State that has voted for Republican presidential nominees since 2000.
The tipping point seat was Montana, where Jon Tester had been able to keep his seat for 18 years, always defeating Republicans in very close elections. This time he lost to Republican Tim Sheehy by about 40,000 votes. A similar scenario unfolded in Ohio, with three-term winner Sherrod Brown being defeated by Republican Bernie Moreno in a State that was once the epitome of the swing state, and is now turning more and more red. The fourth Republican pick came from Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, then was reelected in 2012 and in 2018, becoming the first Democrat in Pennsylvania to win three consecutive Senate terms. This time, Casey lost his reelection bid to Republican candidate David McCormick.
In January 2025, Republicans will, thus, have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, with a crucial margin that will also allow them not to care too much about the last two moderate Republicans who survived eight years of Trumpism: Susan Collins from Maine and Lisa Murkowski from Alaska.
Regarding the House, since 2022, it has been under Republican control with a majority of 220 seats. With all seats up for election, Democrats had hopes of regaining control of the lower chamber. Instead, Republicans flipped eight seats (three in North Carolina, two in Pennsylvania, one in Alaska, one in Colorado and one in Missouri) while Democrats picked up seven seats (three in New York, one in Oregon, one in Louisiana, one in Alabama and one in Arizona).
A few seats are still under count, with postal votes that can make the difference even several weeks after the election day. Certainly, there is going to be again a tiny Republican majority (likely 222-213). It is not a big margin, but it can potentially mean a lot: With the so-called trifecta (control of the White House, plus the Senate and the House), and a solid six-to-three conservative majority in the Supreme Court, there is not much stopping the MAGA platform from becoming a reality. Trumpism is at its zenith, with no institutional obstacles at all.
