Netanyahu’s big win over the Axis of Resistance gives Palestinians a fatal blow
On November 27th, a ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States and France was signed between Israel and Lebanon. The agreement called for a halt of hostilities and for a resumption of an “improved” UN Resolution 1701, including a boosted monitoring mechanism to be politically enforced by the two countries acting as guarantors and by an enhanced presence of the Lebanese Arms Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL on the ground, south of the Litani river.
The fresh Lebanon deal
Despite the arrangement’s limits, pointed out by many analysts – for example the fact that the agreement does not specify what will constitute a severe violation and in which cases the deal might lapse -, it is clear that reaching it was a great success for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose main achievement was to decouple the Lebanese and Gaza fronts and isolate Hamas once again from its allies of the Axis of Resistance. Thus, no matter how long the ceasefire might hold, this major result hindered the threat of a steady alliance between two enemies simultaneously attacking from two different fronts and gave a fatal blow to the Axis of Resistance’s narrative of unfaltering Islamic solidarity.
According to some analysts, including Meirav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group, the Israeli government would have also received a so-called secret “inside letter” from the US administration, whereby the IDF would be allowed to continue flying drones over the Lebanese sky to monitor any violation with the aim of avoiding Hezbollah rearming in the south. Moreover, even if not spelled out in the text of the agreement, the IDF would have obtained the unofficial authorization to “clean” the area south of the Litani river of all inhabitants, shooting fire shots at all Lebanese citizens coming back to homes too close to the border and thus carving out an informal buffer zone.
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Despite this, Netanyahu had trouble selling the Lebanese deal as a major win on the domestic front, with many Israeli citizens being very skeptical of the ceasefire, including many right-wing supporters of Netanyahu himself who are willing to opt for an all-out war winning over Israel’s enemies once and for all. Skeptical are also many left and center voters who are looking for a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the conflict with Lebanon, preventing future round-ups every five to ten years, as well as many of the 80,000 northern residents evacuated now for a year who are suspicious of getting back to their homes while Hezbollah plain-clothes fighters might silently crawl back to the Shia-majority villages along the border where continuous violations are happening any other day.
Netanyahu, though, defended his choice and reassured the Israeli public opinion that the ceasefire agreement would dictate a full-fledged withdrawal within only a 60-day period, that Hezbollah will act accordingly, and that a 6,000 man LAF force will be present in the area, able to operate in the south of the country to restore security, even directly confronting Hezbollah if needed. Moreover, he told his citizens that the IDF would break into Lebanon once again in case of serious violations or a renewal of rocket attacks. He doubled down on his pledge on December 4th by adding that “Israel would strike ceasefire violators with an iron fist”, according to Newsweek article, which was also echoed by his new Defense Minister Israel Katz.
The domestic debate and the PM’s political resilience
Yet, it does not matter whether common Israelis were convinced by these remarks; the issue is that Netanyahu scored big in calling off the war in Lebanon at a moment in which the IDF was overstretched and dispatched in a multifront war, after year-long mobilizations and a high toll of military losses (880 fallen soldiers since October 7th, (חללי ופצועי צה”ל במלחמה | את”צ), which was taken into question by the upper echelons of the IDF. Moreover, Trump’s declarations to be willing to end both ongoing conflicts (Gaza/Lebanon and Russia/Ukraine) within a short timeframe might have acted as nudge for Netanyahu to compromise on minor issues (such as Hezbollah, whose military strength had been severely impaired) to concentrate on what it is really at stake, that is the Gaza settlement and its political survival – two factors that are closely intertwined.
Political survival matters more than anything else to Netanyahu and it is the key to understanding all his actions. In recent weeks, the Israeli PM has come under attack from all sides at home and abroad. Since the International Criminal Court (ICC) filed his and Gallant’s indictments, Moshe Yalon, former Chief of staff during the Second Intifada and Minister of Defense in previous Netanyahu governments, declared in a series of interviews released on December 1st that the IDF was no longer “the most moral army of the world” as Israel was committing war crimes close to a genocide in northern Gaza. Moreover, he added that Netanyahu was jeopardizing the lives and reputation of IDF officers, ordering them to perform actions of ethnic cleansing in the Strip, thus exposing them to ICC lawsuits and international bans.
The government swiftly denies all these accusations, but the mere fact that for once the term “genocide” was echoed in regard to IDF actions on some of the major Israeli TV platforms (Channel 12 news, Kan broadcasting service and Reshet Bet) shocked Israeli public opinion, which had managed for more than a year to look away from what was happening over the fence (Times of Israel, December 2nd, ‘After ‘ethnic cleansing’ charge, Ya’alon says IDF ‘not most moral army’; IDF rejects claims’).
Yet, the fact that Yaalon’s allegations did not spark a major debate in Israeli public opinion, might signal that Netanyahu has it firmly in his grasp. Indeed, thanks to the multiple recent victories achieved in the military sphere and his political survival after the worst military blow ever suffered by Israel on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu managed to sideline his role in strengthening Hamas up until last October and to sell to the public his account of the ICC incrimination as proof of antisemitism and a longstanding bias towards Israel in international organizations worldwide.
In fact, according to a recent poll (Viterbi – Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute between November 25th–28th, 2024, ‘Israelis Divided on Whether Netanyahu Can Fully Function as Wartime Prime Minister While Testifying on Trial – The Israel Democracy Institute), 53% of the Israelis will buy into Netanyahu’s antisemitic and victimhood narrative, while a considerable 23% blame Israel’s poor PR abilities in explaining its actions to the world, thus representing a solid block of citizens who stand behind their prime minister against all charges.
Indeed, Netanyahu at this point – after consolidating his majority with the inclusion of his former enemy Gideon Sa’ar in the government – feels so unbeatable that he is even settling scores with his left-wing critics and pro-hostage deal opponents. Recently, in fact, four leaders of the opposition movement – Brigadier General (res.) Ofer Doron, his son Gal Doron, Itay Yaffe, and Amir Shadeh – were charged with an act of terrorism involving recklessness and negligence for having launched illumination flares at Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesaria on November 16th during weekly protests against the government and the judicial overhaul reform.
Despite the stubbornness of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara to have him testify in court – as, according to Israeli law, the defendant’s presence is mandatory in all stages of the hearing -, and the fact that some 48% of Israelis think he cannot fully function as a wartime prime minister while being on trial, Netanyahu is now convinced he can drag it along enough to reach January 20th, the second presidential inauguration of the new Trump administration. He is sure that once Trump will be in power, he will be given a free hand as the focus will be shifted from abidance of international and national law to security in the Middle East, with the US supporting any action the Netanyahu government would deem necessary to restore both regional and domestic peace, including helping him sideline his trial or eventually overcoming the Supreme Court by ordinary Knesset law.
Divide and rule in Gaza
As all roads lead to Gaza, his political survival is also interwoven with that of his extreme right-wing government, whose settler component is already planning to rebuild Gush Katif. It might not be a coincidence, thus, that the military corridor that is splitting the Gaza Strip into separate parts has been called “Netzarim,” after one of the 2004 dismantled settlements likely to be restored soon after January 20, 2025. The enquiry run by the New York Times (December 2nd, ‘Israel Builds Bases in Central Gaza, a Sign It May Be There to Stay’) shows the IDF attempts to build multiple structures designed to stay in the mid- to long term in the Strip, such as “barracks, access roads and parking for armored vehicles surrounded by defensive ditches, mounds and obstacles to obstruct vehicles.”
The army is reportedly claiming it is doing so only for operational reasons and military goals to disrupt Hamas, but some people in the security establishment admit there might be other objectives. In fact, Ha’aretz claims that sources close to the Netanyahu – such as Amir Avivi, a retired brigadier general, publicly declared that it is no longer possible to withdraw and separate from the Palestinians, which means not only that Israel is ready to resettle Gaza but also that it is planning to cut it steadily into two halves), with the view of further entrenching itself in the Strip but also to divide and rule Gazans.
There is no mystery that this is a long-term goal shared by the Prime Minister – it would be enough to read his autobiography (“Bibi, my story”, 2022) – but if further evidence is needed, he publicly declared the army’s efforts to resettle in the Strip as “amazing work” (cit., NYT, December 2nd) on a number of occasions while visiting his troops and approved the levelling of some 620 buildings, greenhouses and tents by the 749th Combat Engineering Battalion, erasing entire villages such as al-Mughraqa, as revealed by the NYT in its enquiry. In ushering his resettlement plans for the Gaza Strip, the government is backed by some 42% of Israeli Jews, which despite not constituting a majority in favor of colonization, are clearly showing widespread domestic support for the overturning of both the Oslo agreements and the 2005 Sharon unilateral Disengagement Plan.
A New Middle East in the making?
Finally, regional events are further conjuring up to prop Netanyahu’s great plan of creating a new Middle East, cleansed of the forces of the Axis of Resistance. Recent events in Syria with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham jihadi forces conquering Damascus and succeeding in overturning President Assad, might soon mean that Syria will turn once again into an anti-Shia country, where jihadi groups will chase after Hezbollah and Shia militias, breaking up the Axis of Resistance territorial continuity within the Shiite Crescent.
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This fortunate and somehow unexpected outcome means a gift from above for Netanyahu, who might now claim to have put a lethal nail in the coffin of Tehran’s “forward’s defense strategy” in Syria without lifting a finger, after having given that a harsh blow in Lebanon and Gaza. The Israeli feeling of superiority may now reach historical heights as Netanyahu can now claim not only to have restored deterrence vis-à-vis all Israeli enemies, but also to be ready to get rid of Iran itself with US cooperation after January 20th, thus defusing all regional tensions.
This is decisively a big win for a man politically responsible of one of the main human catastrophes in his country, who is also awaiting trial for his multiple corruption charges, and surely a good ticket out of prison. Yet, the single silver lining will be for many moderate Israelis to wake up and suddenly realize that their leadership sacrificed the lives some 100 hostages for its immediate political gains and on the altar of the settlement enterprise, thus driving a clear wedge between those supporting at any human cost the vision of a Great Israel dwelling alone and those sticking to the secular Zionist idea of setting up a normal country among other, possibly liberal, nations.
