The Netherlands, slipping into political crisis over the asylum issue

The Netherlands is a small country with the highest population density in Europe. The country fits into Italy about 7.5 times and is home to almost 18 million people. By comparison, Italy has 58.8 million inhabitants. The Dutch population has grown strongly in the past three decades from 14 million in 1990. This growth is not due to natural population growth, but mainly migration: wealthy expats, foreign students, Eastern European employees and asylum seekers, all coming in relatively large numbers to this tiny kingdom at the North Sea.

The recent arrival of tens of thousands of asylum seekers per year is a cause for concern for many Dutch citizens. The Netherlands always has a political coalition, in which various parties take a seat in government and alas share power. The liberal-conservative VVD of former Prime Minister Mark Rutte – r. 2010-2024 – has tried to achieve stronger migration policy, a wish of its voters, but has not succeeded: the party had to share power with progressive parties who had little interest to grant the VVD’s wishes.

After the Dutch government fell in July last year, early elections were held, which resulted in huge gains for parties that advocate a restrictive asylum policy. The right-wing radical PVV became the largest party, followed by the VVD, the centrist party New Social Contract (NSC) and the right-wing Farmer Citizens Movement (BBB). Together they formed a new government, which started in early July. Although the anti-migration party PVV became the largest, party leader Geert Wilders did not become prime minister. The other parties would not let him, due to various reasons. Instead, Dick Schoof, a non-party high-ranking civil servant with a long track record, took up the top job.

The four new government parties agreed to impose a moratorium on all asylum applications, so that current migration challenges could be dealt with first. The stated goal: The Netherlands must become the most unattractive country for migrants in Europe. In this way, migrants will avoid the country. Furthermore, the government wants an EU opt-out according to the Danish model in migration policy and will also declare a migration crisis. According to the PVV, the Netherlands cannot cope with the large number of migrants, which means that the so-called disaster must be addressed as quickly as possible.

During the summer, Minister Marjolein Faber (PVV) of Migration and Asylum recommended that there surely is a crisis, and to deal with it, a special ‘crisis law’ must be passed. This will bypass parliament, due to the so-called emergency. The government itself would thus take direct measures to quickly contain the ‘tsunami of migrants’ as Mr. Wilders once called it. His announcement about an ongoing crisis made it to the headlines. As far as she and party leader Wilders are concerned, the Netherlands will get the strongest asylum legislation in its history very, very soon.

Still, not all are convinced that emergency powers are a necessity. NSC, one of the coalition parties, is having great difficulty with the chosen approach. There are legal objections: A government can only declare an emergency in the event of war, a pandemic or a disaster, so the constitution says. Although the Dutch asylum systems organization has been in trouble for quite a while and the number of newcomers is putting pressure on housing and facilities such as hospitals and schools, many believe that there is still no crisis of such magnitude as the PVV states.

Recently, King Willem-Alexander announced the government’s plans for the new parliamentary year, including the intention to declare an asylum crisis to make emergency legislation necessary – like in England, the monarch does not write the speech, nor does he decide about policy; the government does. In advance of the opening of parliament, NSC deputy leader Nicolien van Vroonhoven stated her party would not agree to a crisis law under any conditions, only if the plan is legally correct.

With her words, Van Vroonhoven decided – deliberately or not – to drop a bomb under the cooperation of her party with the three other political parties. PVV leader Wilders in particular was not amused. He answered that NSC should comply to the majority, or else. The left-wing opposition smelled a scent of blood and tried to destabilize the coalition during the two-day parliamentary debate after the King’s speech. A difficult and painful debate, and a mood of political crisis, were the result.

The new and inexperienced Prime Minister Schoof announced on day two: Within the cabinet, all ministers will first decide whether the preparation for a ‘crisis law’ will be continued. If so, the plan will move to the Dutch Council of State, which will issue an opinion on the practical and legal aspects of it. Another alternative is so-called ‘emergency legislation’. These laws can also come into effect quickly but must first be approved by parliament. In the case of a crisis law, parliament is sidelined and cannot fulfill its supervisory role as it normally would.

Whether the Netherlands will have a stricter asylum policy depends on its four collaborating parties in government. It looks like the right-wing radical PVV and the centrist NSC will be heading towards a face off. The question is who will come out on top and win this battle, to go on to implement the new asylum policies. The government could walk into a crisis itself and fall. When so, the Dutch will have to go back to the polling stations for a second snap election in just over a year – unlike in Italy, it is customary not to finish the legislature by forming a new coalition or caretaker government.

However, in case the right-wing government survives, the outcome will, in any case, be that the Netherlands is heading for the strictest asylum policy ever. The European Commission’s migration plan, which will come into effect in 2026, could offer an extra solution for countries like the Netherlands. This plan regulates more control over the external borders of the European Union, a common wish among many Europeans in members states that are not directly exposed to external flows.

Read also: The new European Commission: a very personal take

Such a solution will not be enough for PVV leader Wilders: As far as he is concerned, there is an asylum emergency that must be solved against all odds and as soon as possible.