The UK’s electoral system has been considered for decades a model for political stability. Known as “first past the post”, voters choose a single candidate to represent their constituency in parliament, creating a system in which only two parties can govern: the Conservatives, the successors of the Tories, and the Labour Party, founded in 1900 by socialists, the working-class, and trade unionists.
This is why British far-right parties, from Oswald Mosley’s British Union of Fascists – inspired by Benito Mussolini’s Italian Fascist Party -, to Nick Griffin’s British National Party and Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party (UKIP), have never reached a position of significant power or influence in the House of Commons.
The 2016 EU referendum, however, changed this, ushering in a watershed moment for the British far-right. Farage, UKIP founder, was the overwhelming winner as London’s farewell to the EU became a reality. With David Cameron’s gamble to contain Farage, and his internal opponents like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, backfiring, Farage was able to change the political “grammar”, before and after the landmark vote.
Now, a decade later, a You Gov poll alludes to a radical evolution, indicating that Nigel Farage could go from influencing British politics, to taking its reins in 2029.
Farage, the far-right phoenix
Farage was once a member of the Tories – an element of concern for the opposition led by Kemi Badenoch, as well as the prospects of future takeovers or electoral “cannibalization”. He was also a trader on the London Metal Exchange before he became a founding father of UKIP in 1993. Then, in 1999, Farage became an MEP for South England, bringing his inflammatory rhetoric against the EU straight to Brussels.
European membership has always been a matter of contention in the British political arena: The UK only joined the European Economic Union in 1973, after long opposition from France. Its first referendum on membership was held just two years later, in 1975, with the Labour Party leading the campaign to leave the bloc.
Over the years, Farage was able to turn a matter of contention into the main policy issue of UKIP, and to fill the political gap left by the downfall of Nick Griffin’s British National Party (BNP). While the BNP still exists, the party has become irrelevant over the last 10-15 years.
The EU referendum was a key battle for Farage, which led to the “Remain” front’s defeat and the years-long monopolization of British political affairs by Brexit. Farage went on to found the Brexit Party, after leaving UKIP, voicing his disagreement with the Islamophobic stance that the party was taking. However, this should not create illusions about the fact that the current Reform leader has pushed racist and inflammatory rhetoric for years, not only as a political leader, but also as a pundit for the right-wing network GB News, which has grown increasingly popular, surpassing the BBC’s viewership in 2025.
Farage also left UKIP due to the rising influence of far-right extremist Tommy Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon. Through this lens, it is also possible to interpret Elon Musk’s attacks against Nigel Farage, which were surprising given the billionaire’s pledge of $100 million to support Reform UK.
Farage also knows that, while racist rhetoric can be tapped into for political leverage, giving too much space to known extremists can backfire in the UK’s multicultural society – indicating choices dictated more by electoral convenience, than ethics. The British Muslim millionaire, Zia Yusuf, donated an undisclosed amount (likely in the hundreds of thousands of pounds) to Reform UK arguing that the UK had “lost control of our borders”.
In addition, Yusuf became extremely influential in the party as its chair. He contributed to a significant transformation of Reform, rejuvenating its leadership and becoming one of the two men closest to Farage, alongside party treasurer Nick Candy. While Yusuf left the party briefly in June, he returned to the fold only two days later.
How did all of this happen? How was Farage able to find his way out of political irrelevance following the implementation of Brexit?
Bank scandals and Downing Street in sight
When the private bank Coutts, owned by major retail bank NatWest, closed Farage’s account in June 2023, NatWest offered him an account with its retail arm. However, Farage denounced this, picking up media attention, which centered on Coutts denying him an account due to his political views.
The CEOs of Coutts and NatWest both resigned and the incident sent shockwaves through the British banking system. Farage was agile in tapping into the issue of debanking, generating sympathy for his predicament.
Even if the Financial Conduct Authority found no evidence of what Farage was implying – that customers are denied accounts or have their accounts closed due to their non-progressive political views -, the real target in this Reform UK campaign had much to do with a smoke and mirrors effect. Distraction techniques and so-called “anti-woke” rhetoric operate perfectly in the culture wars arena.
Similarly, in this same view, it does not matter if Brexit was a failure, something Farage has admitted himself. Brexit was a success, not economically, but in the politics of polarization and division – areas where ruthless politicians like Farage can thrive. This is especially true when confronted with a weak opposition, led by the ineffective Kemi Badenoch – which goes beyond the leader, as the Tories had one of their worst electoral results in July 2024 after 14 years in power – and a weak PM, Keir Starmer, whose centrist approach reveals a lack of vision and political courage in almost every area.
As the “first past the post” can create debatable majorities, the one with which Starmer is ruling is far weaker than it might seem. Labour got fewer votes in July 2024 than in December 2019 – the worst defeat for the party since 1935 -, putting his permanence at risk at Downing Street after 2029. The threat does not from the Tory side, however, but from Farage who is likely to further cannibalize the Tories electorally.
Starmer has long embraced right-wing rhetoric and policies against migration and for border protection. Voters, however, tend to reward genuinely far-right parties when it comes to hostile policies, as the general experience seems to highlight beyond the Channel.
There are other actors on the UK scene, like Rupert Lowe, former Reform MP, who is now sitting in the Commons as an independent. There is also Advance UK, a new far-right party led by former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib. However, it is too soon to tell if they could threaten Farage’s growing ambitions.
On August 26th, Farage announced his plan to deport 600,000 asylum seekers, and warning of “civil unrest”. Exacerbating tensions, as he is usually does, he achieved his main objective: keeping himself at the center of the political and media conversations, with every other politician running around to discuss his latest stunt.
In a global context of far-right successes, and with the weakening of liberal democracies and consensus, Nigel Farage is here to stay as the real far-right Phoenix. He is capable of becoming influential over and over again, now with Downing Street in sight – something that has been political fantasy until now.